Wonkblog | Ezra Klein | How the aging of America is hurting the Republican Party(1) This is true.
As Ed Kleinbard, a tax professor at USC, points out, the share of the country over 65 will increase by a third in the next 10 years alone. That means a greater share of the country depending on the government — and, worse even than that, a greater share depending on the government for expensive health-care services.
Demographic changes are both inevitable and very, very influential. We've been ignoring them to our own detriment. No, scratch that last. Instead of simply ignoring them we've been actively initiating policies which will make them worse.
(2) This is begging the question.
Aging is inevitable; dependence is not. Being over 65 does not inexorably entail dependence on government. Klein implicitly and entirely rejects the idea that people might provide for their own twilight.
(3) This is only a small piece of the picture.
The problem is only partially that a growing cohort will be dependent on the state. The problem is that there will be just as many people consuming but fewer producing. This is true whether we have enormous social spending programs, or everyone fends for themselves. Almost everything you consume in a given year must be produced by someone working in that particular year.
This aging trend is only exacerbated by the parallel trend of younger people who do not begin producing until later and later in life, especially given that they have often already consumed large quantities of resources in the form of "higher education."
PS Bonus point #4: I would not be so quick to conclude this demographic trend will hurt the Red Team more than the Blue Team. The latter will be forced, for instance, to choose between paying the pensions of retired public sector workers and maintaining spending levels on programs for the poor, for children, etc.