20 December 2012


John D Cook has two posts about The Lindy Effect that are worth reading. (In Cook's words "The longer a technology has been around, the longer it’s likely to stay around.")
Cook provides some mathematical backing to an intuition I had a couple years ago about style: the longer something has been popular, the longer you can expect it to be popular. My father wore Chuck Taylors 60 years ago. I wear Chucks today. Therefore I'm pretty confident that my children will be wearing Chucks 60 years from now. Ditto OCBDs, boat shoes, etc.

(Okay, so neither of us wore Chucks like this, but we do both love Lichtenstein.)

I had no idea this property had an actual name though. The math is convincing. I think the only big assumption is that lifespans are power-law distributed, which seems reasonable and appropriate in many domains.

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