04 November 2010

Prop 19

Marginal Revolution | Tyler Cowen | My impression of the election results, from a great distance

I don't see marijuana climbing the legalization hill, if it can't make it through current-day California.
Can you imagine Prop 19 getting the support it did even 15 years ago? 20?  California has become significantly more receptive to ending prohibition within my lifetime. Why would this not continue to be the trend? Why is future-California (or future-Oregon, or future-Massachusetts, or ...) going to be less receptive that present-California?
We're seeing the high water mark for pot, as aging demographics do not favor the idea.
I'd look at the same data and conclude the opposite. Current older voters do not favor the idea, but that doesn't tell us whether voters who are older in the future will favor it. Cowen's hypothesis is that younger people who don't like prohibition age into older people who do, that is, they become more like current old people. My hypothesis is that younger people who don't like prohibition age into older versions of themselves, retaining many of the same opinions as their younger selves.

Which is a better predictor of what a current 25 year old will believe in 20 years: what that person believes now, or what a 45 year old believes now?

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