11 March 2010

P( CarDeath | car==FaultyToyota & MilesPerYear==12817.5 ) == P( CarDeath | car != FaultyToyota & MilesPerYear==13000 )

CMU.edu | Shilo Raube & Chriss Swaney | Carnegie Mellon Professor Calculates Real Risk of Driving a Recalled Toyota

[F]or the 2.3 million Toyotas being recalled, there are about 340 fatalities every year for causes unrelated to the accelerator. The accelerator problem is adding about six deaths every year to this total...

Driving a recalled Toyota for about a half mile less per day would be the same as if you drove in a vehicle without the problem.
It works in reverse too:  if I took one extra lap around the block in my Honda every day I'd be taking on the same risk as if I traded it in for a faulty Toyota.

(Via Ryan Sager)

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